GTA 6 has an estimated 6 million digital pre-orders, 148% ahead of Modern Warfare 2

Grand Theft Auto 6 has about 6.08 million digital pre-orders on PlayStation and Xbox, according to an estimate from the analytics firm Sensor Tower reported by GamesIndustry.biz. That is about $594 million after refunds, and it puts the game 148% ahead of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 at the same point before its launch.

Modern Warfare 2 was the strongest of the launches Sensor Tower compared it with. Nothing else was close.

The numbers

• Pre-orders: about 6.08 million, to 13 October, which was 37 days before launch.
• Revenue: about $594 million, after refunds.
• PlayStation: about 74%, roughly 4.51 million copies.
• Xbox: about 26%, roughly 1.57 million copies.
• Edition: the large majority of buyers chose the $99.99 Ultimate Edition.

A later update, reported by TechPowerUp around 20 October, puts the count at about 6.45 million and revenue at about $630 million, with the same three-to-one split in PlayStation's favour.

Why to treat it carefully

These are estimates. Sensor Tower models store data. Take-Two and Rockstar have not published a pre-order figure and have not confirmed these.

The scope also needs reading closely. The comparison with Modern Warfare 2 is described as covering US digital pre-orders on PlayStation and Xbox, while some of the coverage calls the headline figure global. Either way, it excludes the boxed edition, and since the box only contains a download code that is still a real slice of sales missing from the count.

Sensor Tower also changed its estimation model on 5 October, so comparing these numbers with its earlier ones is not quite like for like.

What it does tell you

Even read cautiously, the direction is not in doubt. Pre-orders running at more than twice the pace of one of the biggest Call of Duty launches ever is a different scale of event. The edition split is just as telling: most people paying for GTA 6 in advance are paying the extra $20 for the Ultimate Edition.

The platform split is less of a surprise. PlayStation has the marketing deal, the launch trailer opens on its logo and was captured on a PS5, and the PS5 has the bigger installed base.

What is not known

Real sales, worldwide pre-orders including boxes, and how many of these pre-orders were bought with a console. Take-Two reports its quarterly results on 9 November, the last scheduled moment it could choose to give a number before launch. It usually does not.